In Depth: Beyond the 10 Day
ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — Currently across the United States, the jet stream is digging across the Central US with a weak ridge over the Eastern US and a building ridge over the Pacific.
This pattern set up the brief mild spell we have been dealing with the last 2 days, but that is not expected to last much as we are expecting another Arctic surge to return to the region locally and a return to winter with snow for the end of the week.
Due to the “Red Alert” there is no video update this week, and for more information on this week’s storm head to the “Red Alert” web article on our website.
Another important piece to the current atmosphere is the Polar Vortex. A lobe of that is once again over the Hudson Bay and it will continue to swirl there over the next couple of weeks contributing to cooler weather locally.
Arctic air will once again swing into our region as we head towards the weekend thanks to our winter storm Thursday and Friday. This cold air will remain in place across our region into early next week when we have our eyes on another chance for snow to fall.
Right now, things are still pointing towards a flat system off the East Coast with no impacts locally. We talked about this on our last update as ensemble guidance remain flat with the jet stream, rather than amped and up the East Coast. We will continue to monitor trends, and at this point if this were to trend up the coastline we would be watching out for light snow.
Significant weather is not expected with that one at this time. Behind that system, another brief period of milder weather is expected. An Aleutian low will kick the ridge south of Alaska east and allow our pattern to briefly warm up before turning cold again as the pattern settles next weekend and early the following week.
After the brief mild spell, a ridge will once again build out west with the Polar Vortex having a grip on our weather locally. This tandem will create Cross-Polar flow, and bring back the Artic air locally. This overall setup will once again favor Alberta Clippers and East Coast lows as the pattern remains unsettled.
In terms of lake effect, it will be interesting to see how the ice cover progresses with another shot of cold air. Lake Erie is over 80% covered while Lake Ontario is just over 20%. Wind direction behind future storms will be important is it looks like lake effect from Lake Erie is shut down for now, while Lake Ontario will be running.
As far as our next storm chances, we will be watching next weekend (Feb 11th-Feb 13th) and Feb 15th-Feb 16th. These two opportunities are showing the potential for more significant weather for our region as low pressure may once again find itself along the East Coast. Timing of energy and strength of ridging out west and over the Atlantic will be key and will be analyzed storm by storm.
Believe it or not, here in Rochester we remain below average for snow so the snowy weather is welcomed as we continue to climb near our seasonal average of 100”. Our next update will come on Sunday February 6th.
Temperatures: Generally below average the next two week. A few days will be above average, but Artic air is once again favored to swing in multiple times.
Precipitation: Above average.
Storm Chances:
Feb 3rd-4th: Red Alert, long drawn out storm expected with heavy snow totals when it is all said and done. More information can be found on the “Red Alert” web article.
Feb 7th-Feb 8th: Possible low off the East Coast, still flat but something to monitor. No significant weather expected at this time.
Feb 11th-Feb 13th: Another opportunity for low pressure off the East Coast, cold air will be in place. No mixing expected at this moment if a storm pops up.
Feb 15th-Feb 16th: Pattern remains active with another chance for low pressure off the East Coast. Cold air remains in place and snow will be possible.