First Alert Weather In-Depth: Treading towards more summer?

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Meteorologists are always looking for the trend. Is the trend up or is the trend down? Let’s focus specifically on the temperature trend. The recorded high temperature for the last seven days for Rochester shows that last Tuesday and Wednesday the mercury barely reached 50 degrees.

But through this past weekend that trend has been steadily going up and we are now well into the 70s. Here is the question: could this be warm enough to push toward a record high temperature? Monday the record is 80 degrees which goes back to 2007. And Tuesday the Rochester Airport could hit 80 degrees with a record of 82 degrees. This record goes all the way back to 1979.

The weather pattern that produces this kind of warmth is illustrated by the upper level winds and the jet stream. Right now, the jet is north of the great lakes, however, late Wednesday and Thursday jet stream will be sinking to the south of Western New York. That will usher in cooler air for the second half of the week, but the chill will not last very long.

The six-to-ten-day temperature trend has a high probability of above average temperatures over much of the country. And even beyond that point, the eight to fourteen day temperature outlook also shows a higher probability of mild weather. That is amazing because that projection goes into early November.

Interesting to note, that the last time we reached 80 degrees in Rochester was more than four weeks ago. The summer season continues to hang on!