ROCHESTER, N.Y. — It is this time of the year when we start thinking about what kind of winter season is coming to Western New York. In the short term, the snow is already beginning to fly out west through the Rocky Mountains, Alaska and the Canadian Yukon.

It is important to note that none of this snow is heading towards Rochester, at least for now. If we look back to our seasonal snowfall history the Rochester Airport shows a record of five winter seasons in a row with below average snowfall. In fact, last season we only managed to measure half the usual snow. 

What tool can we use to predict the upcoming winter? It is too early in the season to bring any great insight to the forecast, but maybe we can use some weather folklore. The woolly bear caterpillar comes to mind. As the story goes, the more black color for the banding the harsher or more severe you can expect for the upcoming winter season. However, the more brown coloring brings a greater chance for a mild winter. I doubt there is any real scientific bases for this, but the cute little critters are fun to watch. Years ago there were a couple of small non-scientific studies done on the matter, but scientists have since  discounted any real prognostication abilities. It seems to make more sense that instead of looking ahead for the future winter season, the banding may be more of a reflection of the past winter.

As we get closer to winter, watch for a more specific meteorological outlook from the News 10NBC First Alert meteorologists with a humble prediction for December, January and February.