In Depth: Beyond the 10 Day

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — Across the United states as of now, we have troughing over the Eastern US and split flow over the Western US. The split flow is due to a building upper level ridge that will make its way across into the Eastern US, but we will have to wait until later in the week for that. The toughing over the Eastern US will be responsible for colder weather we see through the majority of the work week. Further out the lobe of the Polar Vortex, which we have been tracking, is sitting near Greenland which will open the door for warmer weather to move in once again. Also, the ridge that was over the Pacific US is getting beat up by an Aleutian Low, but will build back late this week and also favor milder weather ahead.

Like we mentioned over the last couple of updates, the constant back and forth between warm and cold will continue. Through this week, troughing will remain over the Eastern US with colder weather expected. In terms of unsettled weather, the split flow over the Western US will keep us at bay with the exception of an Alberta Clipper during the middle of the week. The split flow will keep the Polar and subtropical jet streams from interacting to our west or over the East Coast, which is why most of this week will be quiet. However, the constant changing will continue and the same can not be said for next weekend. By next weekend, the upper level ridge will flow from the Western US to the Eastern US. This will turn us on the milder side of things, but allow a trough to dig across the west. Troughing over the Western Us will spin up a storm next weekend which will begin to move northeast, and towards our region. The timeframe we are looking at is Saturday March 6th-March 7th. The overall pattern for this storm favors a storm cutting to our north. The lack of high latitude blocking and ridge over the Eastern US will help push this storm to our north with rain locally. We are also missing high pressure form the west sliding in quick enough to push this thing south. Even though we will likely see rain with this, we are still watching this for creeks and streams. Grounds across our region are already soaked form recent snow melt and rain, and with another potential round of snow melt and rain, creeks will have an easier time rising. Nothing significant is expected at this moment, but models are popping up near an inch of rain with this storm which could cause some minor creek flooding once again. not only that, but we may have the chance for more wintry weather to fall behind this system as a cold front bring in the colder air locally and switches the pattern once again.

The constant back and forth will continue behind this system as colder weather will be favored to move back in towards the middle of next week. After this storm passes, the lobe of the Polar Vortex, that has hung around Greenland, will swing back west and reposition itself over the Hudson Bay. This will help to squish the influence of the ridge over our region locally and push in colder weather. As for the Pacific ridge, that will maintain itself. Although the Pacific ridge will be consistent and force troughing over the Western US, the influence of the Polar Vortex will have a greater determinant of our weather locally. With the colder weather in place, we will have the opportunity for wintery precipitation to fall. On the tail end of this cold front, we may have an area of low pressure form and travel to our south. The timeframe we are looking for this to potentially occur is around March 8-March 10. A lot needs to be ironed out, but the opportunity is there. This will also have a much higher chance for wintry weather to fall locally as high pressure will be in control with the supply of cold air. Not guaranteed that something forms, or that we see snow, but this will definitely be a timeframe to monitor. Regardless of a hit or miss from this storm, more cold air is on the way. Models are picking up on the idea of a swing back to cold towards late next week and into the following weekend. With that, we will also have another chance for unsettled weather. This chance comes right at the end of this update, but the timeframe we are watching is March 12th-March 14th. Right now, this timeframe looks fantastic for something to form along the East Coast, but alas we are 14 days away so things will change. However with the cold air in place, and an active jet stream off the East Coast, the chance for snow exists. Once again, the theme of this update is that Winter is not over! Our next update will be on Wednesday March 2nd.

Temperatures: Cool this week before mild this weekend and early next week. Then, back to cold the middle of next week.

Precipitation: Dry this week, but unsettled and above average this weekend and next week.

Storm Chances:

March 6th-March 7th: No blocking to our north, storm likely moves north. Rain likely, watching for potential rises on local creeks and streams

March 8th-March 10th: Cold air begins to move in. Will low pressure form along cold front, and how much cold air will be available? Wintry precipitation favored, rain still possible.

March 12th-March 14th: Cold air in place. Jet dynamics are favoring something along East Coast.