Quiet and milder start to the week before our own forecasting headache moves in late week

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WHEC) — Beginning to sound like a broken record, but once again we are on the colder side. A few breaks in the clouds last night dropped our temperatures to -6. No record, but we were close to the record of -12 set back in 1873. Cloud cover allowed us to "warm up" into the single digits as the sun rose and it will help us get to the low 20s this afternoon. Cloud cover will stick around through the day with the best chance for sunshine south of the thruway. An isolated snow shower or flurry will be possible along the lakeshore, but no accumulation expected. Wind chill will not be much of a factor today, but at times it could feel like the teens. It will feel near 0 early Monday, but temperatures will improve to near 30 in the afternoon. A lot more sunshine than the previous week is expected early this week with partly cloudy skies Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will also make their way to near 40 Tuesday and Wednesday. However, clouds increase Tuesday night and give way to rain and snow showers late Wednesday as cold air swings in from the west. Then on Thursday we have our eyes on our next winter weather maker with rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain possible.

A cold front will swing through Wednesday and drop our temperatures near the freezing mark and set the stage for winter weather. an area of low pressure will begin to spin up near the southern Mississippi River Valley. This area of low pressure will begin to move northeast and towards the I-95 corridor with the opportunity to bring us snow locally. Uncertainty remains, and as of this morning it is more with intensity rather than track as they will go hand in hand. This morning, the European model has shown a weaker and flatter wave. This scenario does not let low pressure get its act together and remains a wave riding along the cold front as it moves east. This scenario keeps the heaviest snow to our south with light to moderate accumulations locally. This will also limit the icing potential across our region as cold air and high pressure to the west quickly move in. The GFS on the other hand has a snowier solution locally. After the cold front swings through, the GFS has low pressure over the Gulf Coast intensifying and moving along the I-95 corridor. This solution is a stronger system and opens the door for heavier snow locally. this solution does also open the door for mixed precipitation as well. The GFS has a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and no snow due to the potential of sleet and freezing rain mixing in. right now, the GFS has the mixing line over the Southern Tier as opposed to our region locally, but slight changes will move that line north or south. As of now the GFS has the heaviest of the snow over our region locally when compared to the Euro which is south. No Yellow Alert has been issued for the region as there is high uncertainty at the moment.

Things will change later today and early this week, and the First Alert Weather Team will keep you updated on our potential snowstorm leading up to the event.

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