First Alert Meteorologist Glenn Johnson has two big questions when it comes to Hurricane Milton. Obviously, what is the size, scope, and the intensity as it makes landfall? And number two, what is the population density for any location when it comes ashore?

As with any major hurricane, the salt water storm surge can produce the greatest lose of life. A recent study in 2015 concluded that Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable place in the U.S. due to storm surge flooding. 

The meteorological history of this hurricane has been amazing when you consider the rapid rise in intensity. The increase from a category one to a category five storm was one of the fastest rates of increase in recorded history (12 hours). The direction or movement of the storm  has now taken a more east to north easterly heading which means is now taken a turn toward the West Coast of Florida.

The National Hurricane Center shows the “cone of uncertainty” and the forecast for exact path of Milton is still covering a wide area, but the center line of the cone has not changed much from the Tampa Bay area.

Unfortunately, if the storm were to make a direct hit on Tampa the size and density of population could be catastrophic. It’s been a very long time since this area had a major hurricane (category three or higher). Records show that it has been more than 100 years (1921) since there was an impact of this size and scale. This was a period before we even had names for hurricanes.

Right now, Tampa is the 17^th largest metropolitan area in the country. In as recently as 1970 the population was near one million people, but today the population has grown to three million citizens. So in just 54 years the population of City of Tampa tripled.

Lets hope for something other than a direct hit from a hurricane.