ROCHESTER, N.Y. — It has been a very busy tropical season and we still have a ways to go before it comes to an end. Another storm is brewing in the Caribbean Ocean.

The list of names for the 2024 season shows the eighth storm in the cue is “Helene.” Helene is developing between Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula. The first question is, where is it going? Current computer modeling that simulates where the center point of Helene is likely to be in the coming days has a variety of solutions, but the consensus is for the panhandle of Florida. As a result, we have a high confidence level for where it will likely make landfall.

The second question is the intensity and the scope of the storm. To achieve that portion of the forecast, the hurricane reconnaissance tracking group, better known as the “hurricane hunters,” have been flying out of Mobile, Alabama. This plane will circumvent and eventually fly into the storm several times and use an instrument called a dropsonde. The dropsonde will measure many kinds of atmospheric data such as pressure, temperature, humidity and winds. This data is fed back into the computer models as part of the prediction process.

In the path of Helene is ocean water temperatures that are between 84 and 88 degrees. Anything over 80 degrees is fuel for the storm and intensification is highly likely.  Helene will move through the Gulf of Mexico and probably make landfall later Thursday as a major hurricane with winds well in excess of 100 miles per hour. This would make it a category three hurricane which could produce eight to twelve inches of rainfall.  Between the heavy rain and storm surge (coastal flooding) a significant deluge is expected. Right now, the residual moisture appears to be heading into the Tennessee Valley and the current projection is that the remnants of Helene will not affect Rochester.

The News 10NBC First Alert meteorologists will be watching this trend in the coming days .