The big weather story is Hurricane Helene. The questions still to be answered are what is the likely impact and what is the ultimate strength as it makes landfall? Just as they say in real estate, it comes down to location, location, location. And where Helene lands will be a big determining factor for the storm surge.

Most folks know that storm surge is flooding, but you may not know how and why it happens. Think of those beautiful beach homes that are situated very close to the water’s edge. Most of the time there is a normal sea level with normal wave action. But a storm surge can act almost like a tsunami. When a hurricane is approaching, the water level will rise over and above the predicted astronomical tide. This surge is a large dome of water that can cover hundreds of miles and ultimately that water will be swept across the coastline and driven inland. This happens near the northeast quadrant of the hurricane and has been forecast in the past with great accuracy. For example, a surge of 3 to 6 feet will easily take out the first floor of our beach house. But if the surge is upwards of 10 feet or more, it will inundate the second floor and push much farther inland. This scenario will likely happen along portions of the west coast of Florida. The communities likely affected by this will be north of the City of Tampa, all the way to Cedar Key, around the Panhandle to Apalachicola, Florida. Many of these seaside communities will have the potential for serous ocean flooding with lives and property in jeopardy.

An added dimension to this surge is the shape of the upper west coast of Florida. If you look at a map, the panhandle has a concave shape covering hundreds of miles. That geographic shape will magnify the problem with the overall land mass collecting more of the surge.

There is an old weather adage. And it says, when it comes to severe weather you should hide from the wind, but you must run from the water. Let’s hope that these folks stay safe.