ROCHESTER, N.Y. – The birth rate in the United States is at a point that in 10 years, one prediction by the U.S. Census says there will be more deaths than births. This has implications for things like our schools, Social Security, Medicare, jobs, and the economy.

In 2001, more than 256,976 babies were born in New York State. In 2021, it dropped to 209,947 — a difference of 43,577 babies. News10NBC Chief Investigative Reporter Berkeley Brean went to a community baby shower and met a mother named Whitney Breedlove to discuss the issue.

Berkeley Brean, News10NBC: “How many children do you want?”

Whitney Breedlove, expecting second child: “I wanted to stop at one. So, this was a surprise. But the vision was just one child.”

Breedlove, who has a 13-year-old daughter and is seven months pregnant with her son, was working the Healthy Baby Network baby shower in Rochester on Saturday. The birth rate in America is now under two, and over 10 years, the number of babies born in Rochester dropped 20%.

“The idea of ‘It takes a village’ is kind of gone,” Breedlove said. “It’s kind of like, ‘That’s your family, your child. Figure it out.'”

Nicholas Mark, a sociologist who studies populations at the University of Wisconsin, doesn’t think the sky is falling, but does say the drop is real. He points to uncertainty in many parts of people’s lives as a factor.

Brean: “Why are people worried about this drop in birthrate?”
Nicholas Mark, Asst. Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin: “If you extrapolate these trends out to the really long term, then you get terrible scenarios. In the medium term, you could say Social Security and Medicare payments.”

In 1960, the ratio of people paying into Social Security and those getting it was 6 to 1. Today, it’s 3 to 1. In 2050, it could be 2 to 1.

Mark says be careful of doomsday thinking here. He says there may be fewer people, but wages are up. So they’re paying more into the system.

Brean: “What do you think is behind the drop? “

Mark: “The thing people have pointed to when they’re asked about it is uncertainty in a lot of parts of their lives.”

Brean: “What is it like raising a child in 2024?”

Breedlove: “Oh, it’s hard. There are so many substances to it. There’s economics, there’s education. I worry about just the environment I’m bringing my children into.”

Brean: “What would make it easier for you?”

Breedlove: “A definite spot in childcare, because a lot of the spots are full. So, that’s a big thing: working around your job schedule and day care.”

Over 20 years, student enrollment in Fairport is down 26%, in Greece it’s down 27%, and in Rochester it’s down 40%. In the same period, enrollment in public schools in New York State went down by half a million children.

Click here to find the enrollment numbers in your school district.

Some countries have tried to pay parents to have children, like Hungary. A similar effort in South Korea didn’t work. Sociologists like Mark say designing a system that makes it easier on parents, with more vacation, flexible work, safer neighborhoods, and affordable child care, could help.

This week, Governor Kathy Hochul said childcare costs have gone up 20% in the last five years. On Tuesday, she announced the state is increasing the Empire Child Tax Credit, with qualifying families getting a check in the mail by the end of the month.

“No forms, phone calls, no hoops to jump through. It’s just going to come to them,” Hochul said.

Some families will get $330 per child, and if you got a check last year, you would get one this year and it will be more.

Click here to see if you qualify and how much money could be in your check. You will need your tax return to do the calculations.

I asked Steve Kunkle at Brighton Securities to list the tax credits and tax breaks for children and estimate what a family of two making the median household income would get.

The results:

Example: a Married filing joint tax return with $80k of income, taking the standard deduction with two children under the age of four can expect a federal child tax credit of $4k in total ($2k/child), and the NYS Empire State Child Credit of $660 ($330/child)

Federal:

– Child Tax Credit (CTC): Up to $2k per child, can phase out for very high earners

– Child Dependent Care Expenses (Form 2441): For childcare expenses. up to $3k for the first qualifying child and up to $6k for two or more qualifying children.

– Earned Income Tax Credit: Must have earned income and meet certain adjusted gross income thresholds. Credit is worth up to $7,430 for 2023. 

– American Opportunity Tax Credit: For children in the first four years of college. Parents are eligible to claim up to $2,500 in tax credits for qualifying out of pocket college expenses.

– Lifetime Learning Credit: Can receive up to $2k in tax credits for qualifying out of pocket college expenses.

New York State:

– NYS Empire State Child Credit: Up to $330 per child for children four & under.

– As of July 30, Governor Hochul announced an additional $330 per child expansion for this tax credit for families meeting certain income thresholds and expanded this to children under the age of 17. This will be received in the mail by the end of August.

– NYS Earned Income Credit: If the parent received the federal EITC, this credit will be 30% of your allowable federal earned income credit.

– NYS College Tuition Credit: Up to a $400 tax credit or a $10,000 itemized deduction for each eligible student enrolled for undergraduate studies

One last note on the declining birth rate: one of the factors is good. Teen pregnancy dropped 80% since 1991.

AI assisted with the formatting of this story. Click here to see how WHEC News 10 uses AI.