ROCHESTER, N.Y. — It’s not a huge amount of rainfall. In fact, meteorologist Glenn Johnson doesn’t think there’s been significant flooding to this point in the spring season for Rochester area. However, what we lack in intensity we more than make up for with frequency of the rain. And that is still a concern for the remainder of the season.

We can track this by looking at the month of April and the number of days with rainfall at the Rochester Airport. Just about half the days for the month there’s been measurable moisture in the rain gauge. If you do the math, April rain was at 144 percent of normal. Recently, this frequency of wet weather diminished, but some of our computer models show this could be about to change again. 

It appears that in the coming week a lot of precipitation will come through the Ohio valley, but it’s questionable how much of that wet weather is actual going to reach Western New York. We are confident that the frequency of the wet weather will be on the increase. The primary reason for this increased frequency is the storm track. Over the last 30 to 40 days the storm track was located, from south to north, through the central Great Lakes. Now that has changed.

In the coming days (and this past week) the storm path is more west to east across the Ohio Valley.  These two patterns are different, but the main commonality is the storms are moving very close to Rochester (no matter what the direction of movement is).

A greater question may be: when will the atmosphere will begin to settle down? It’s difficult to say, but the meteorologists on News10NBC’s First Alert Weather Team will follow the trend in the coming days and weeks.