First Alert Weather: A much colder weekend

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Waking up Saturday morning to much cooler weather than we have seen the past few days.

After the last three days making their way into the low 60s, Saturday will feature much cooler weather with highs only in the 40s. The good news is that we will see much more sunshine than Friday. After a few clouds Saturday morning, mostly sunny skies are expected Saturday afternoon. It will also be a little breezy at times which will make it feel like the 30s, so make sure you are bundled up!

Just about the same is expected for Sunday as we remain chilly under partly cloudy skies. However, a weak cold front will push over Lake Ontario and that will help spark a few rain or snow showers. Not travel impacts are expected, but rain and snow showers will be possible through early Sunday afternoon before drying out. After this weekend, everyone’s eyes will be on travel weather for Thanksgiving.

As of Saturday morning, the lake effect snow potential is looking much less significant than what it looked like a couple of days ago. Firstly, this will start off with an area of low pressure cutting to our north with rain and breezy conditions late Tuesday. A cold front will swing through with a few rain and snow showers on Wednesday, but nothing of concern. It is Thanksgiving that we were watching for a potential lake effect snow event, but it has looked much less impressive the past two days. The reason is that a coastal low will form off the East Coast on Thursday, and this drastically switches the wind direction.

Earlier this week, the cutting low looked to sit to our north, and this would bring a more southwesterly wind off Lake Erie. That direction would be prime for big lake snows near Buffalo. However, the last two days models have shown the coastal low become the primary storm on Thursday which switches that southwesterly wind direction to a more westerly direction. This direction is not favorable for big Lake Erie snows, but still favorable for some bigger accumulations to the east of Lake Ontario. Here in Rochester, we are still only expecting a few snow showers with very minor impacts.

Can things change still? Yes, but the trends have been our friend for easier travel this holiday weekend. Regardless, it will still be cold through the holiday weekend with highs in the 30s. Stay tuned for any updated regarding the holiday travel weather with the First Alert Weather Team!