First Alert Weather In-Depth: Falling leaves and rain can be a problem

What does the probability of precipitation really mean?

The News10NBC Team details breaking News, Traffic and Weather.

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Western New York is finally getting back into some wet weather. It has been rather dry over the past week and as a result, we could use a little rain.

However, this has been an unusual couple of weeks, with month of September bringing a deluge during Sept. 6 and 7 when we measured over two inches of rain.

Then more recently we went through an extended period of dry weather. This was nice as we enjoyed some lovely weather but this produced 11 consecutive days of dry conditions.

Now that we have the rain, what is the best way to convey the arrival of precipitation?  The News10NBC First Alert meteorologists have several tools to effectively accomplish this and it starts with the 10-day forecast. Probability of precipitation is a percentage scale running from zero to one hundred percent. For example, if we forecast a 30% chance of rain that means that any town in our viewing area has a 30% chance of seeing rain over a specific time period.

As that percentage increases, there is a greater and greater chance of your town seeing rainfall. It is important to note that this has nothing to do with the intensity or duration of the rain. The probability of precipitation can also be used to highlight specific locations in our viewing area. For example, there could be a 30% chance of precipitation for the City of Rochester but then the probability increases to 50% through the Finger Lakes.

The likelihood of rain becomes especially important during the fall season. The leaves are coming down and that “blanket” of leaves can be a problem for storm drains.  It is always a good idea to clear out those drains when significant rain is in the forecast. 

This reduces the chance of standing water. Obviously, if you reduce any blockage, there is less chance of flooding.