First Alert Weather In-Depth: Tropical trouble brewing

ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Summer is in full swing across our region locally, nationally, and across the Northern Hemisphere. With that comes the increased odds for tropical systems to form.

Hurricane season is from June 1 through November 30. We’ve had one named storm so far this season: Alberto. Climatologically speaking, August and September are the most active months of the tropical season, but things are beginning to heat up in the tropics as there are two areas of investigation the National Hurricane Center is watching.

Invest 94L is southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula with a 30% chance of development over the next seven days, while Invest 95L is out over the open waters of the tropical Atlantic with a 70% chance of development over the next seven days. Invest 94L is closer to land, so time for it to development is beginning to run out, and the forecasted tracks are having it either move inland over Honduras, or scrape the coastline and slide into Belize and Guatemala.

Not much of a concern for the Continental United States, and although it might not get a name very heavy tropical downpours are expected for part of Central America with flooding and mudslides possible.

On the other hand, Invest 95L has a lot more time to develop and does pose a threat towards the Caribbean and is keeping the Southeast US on alert. As of Thursday, Invest 95L has a 70% chance for development over the next week. Models keep Invest 97L fairly weak, and moving into the Lesser Antilles, through the next five days. After that, models increase the intensity of Invest 95L as the environment becomes a little more favorable for stronger development and as it continues to sit over very warm water.

Where invest 95L currently sits, the water temperatures are roughly around 80 degrees which does allow for tropical development, but much warmer waters lie in the Caribbean and gulf of Mexico. The water temperatures in the Caribbean are roughly near 85 degrees while in the Gulf of Mexico are already just shy of 90 degrees. Those water temperatures are much more conducive for tropical development.

It will take a few days for Invest 95L to make its way into the warmer water, but it will be something to track through the Fourth of July. The next two names are Beryl & Chris.