First Alert Weather: Spring-like day for Thursday and dicey system for this weekend

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Thursday is going to feel much more seasonable with temperatures getting up to around 50 degrees, and beautiful sunny skies will make it that much better.

It’s a great day for a drive, a walk, or really anything outdoors. Winds will be out of the west at 10-15 MPH with afternoon gusts at 25 MPH, which may be a bit of a nuisance in the later hours of the day. No threats to speak of, besides a small craft advisory along the lakeshore from Thursday at 8 p.m. to Friday at 8 a.m. So, if you’re going out fishing, this morning would be the best time.

Clouds will increase in the evening and night, and there’s a chance for a light quick shower around midnight. It will be mostly cloudy on Friday with temperatures a bit cooler, and there will be on-and-off showers beginning in the afternoon and getting a little heavier overnight.

We’re continuing to track a complicated system moving through the area this weekend. We’re very close to the line between rain and freezing rain, and that line being even a few dozen miles north or south can make a huge difference.

Over the past two days, that line has been trending northward as we get closer to the weekend and gather more data. There is still the decent possibility that at least a little ice will form Saturday overnight. But right now, it seems our overall concerns will be wind and rain on Saturday, a little ice overnight, then more rain Sunday.

The rain won’t be a big enough issue and the wind shouldn’t be either (current gust forecast caps out at 40 MPH), so the number one thing we’re looking at is the ice. But we’re Green on the Threat Tracker for now; we’re going to wait a little longer to see if that trend continues northward and ice amounts decrease anymore. The BIGGEST uncertainty is the temperature gradient; some areas could see the 30s while others see the 60s!

Stay tuned to News10 NBC for updates on the weekend weather, and download the free First Alert Weather app on your phone to get instant updates as soon as we send them out.