First Alert Weather: Winter weather pattern is about to flare up
ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Even though we’re much more on track to have a normal amount of total snowfall this winter, most of that snow has been a daily inch here and there of nuisance lake effect snow.
It’s looking like that’s about to change. Long-term modeling suggests that the jet stream, which has a massive influence on the overall placement and track of winter storms, is going to position itself in a way that will give us a good chance of getting several rounds of weathermakers over the next ten days.
Of course, the farther out our forecasts go, the less confident we can be with what exactly will happen. But the overall trend is that our winter is about to get more exciting.
As for Friday, we had some snow squalls in overnight as a cold front passed through, and for the rest of the day it’s looking like it will just be a cold, cloudy, windy day with some more nuisance lake flakes. A heavier lake effect snow band will develop that will be more heavily impacting areas southeast of Lake Ontario, so if you’re traveling east today, be aware of rapidly changing road conditions around the Syracuse area.
The weekend starts out dry and cloudy, but Saturday night is when our first weathermaker comes through – a large scale synoptic system (synoptic meaning “at the same time”, aka it’ll be affecting the entire northeast US) that will give us a large range of snowfall totals depending on how strong the lake enhancement is. Most areas will see 2-4″, but some areas will have localized snowfall amounts of 3-6″ with a northeast wind feeding off the lake.
Super Bowl Sunday will have lake flakes following behind the synoptic system as the wind shifts westward, which will be a nuisance for clearing the driveway and could make travel to Super Bowl parties more difficult. We’re tracking this system closely and may issue a Yellow Alert for Sunday depending on how strong that lake effect is looking, but for now we’re Green.
Next week will give us the chance for three more weathermakers… Yup, looks like the winter pattern is definitely starting to ramp up. The three chances are Tuesday night, Thursday, and Saturday-Sunday. Right now, long term model guidance is in good agreement that the brunt of the Tuesday night storm will stay south of us, but Thursday and Saturday-Sunday has a better chance of coming through and possibly giving us some more significant snowfall totals… But this is ten days away, and the farther out our forecasts go the less certain we can be on the exact positioning, timing, and snowfall amounts.
We encourage you to stay tuned, but needless to say this is a very exciting time for the First Alert Weather team. It’s about time we get some nicer looking storms to track… Thank you jet stream!
