Weather In Depth: Probably going to rain

In the past, the News10NBC First Alert meteorologists have predicted torrential, widespread rain — which may cover all of Western New York or maybe there is just a spotty, hit-or-miss few sprinkles. In either event, what is the best way to convey this forecast information?

These two rainfall events (and everything in between) are best used when conveying the probability of precipitation. It is a tool of meteorological communication, and not every station chooses to use this method. But if it is used correctly, we believe it has some real benefits.

So, what is the actual meaning of weather probability and what are we precisely measuring? It really comes down to a geographical representation. An example is a 30 percent probability of rain for tonight. That means there is a 30 percent chance for any town or community in the forecast area, during a given time period, to see rainfall. As the probability goes up, there is a more likely scenario for you to see that rain.

You can find this prediction probability any time on the News10NBC First Alert 10 day forecast. Now we just have to stop the rain after what has been a rainy summer season.