Some would say the weather feels cold enough for snow today—and if not today, it certainly will by Wednesday. The latest weather data shows an unseasonably chilly airmass pressing down across the Great Lakes, keeping our temperatures stuck in the 30s for most of the week.

One way to gauge our seasonal snowfall is by looking at long-term averages. Typically, Rochester measures around 92 inches of snow per season. However, so far this season, we’re running behind. As of now, the Rochester Airport has a snowfall deficit of 10.5 inches. Can we make up that difference? Yes, but with time running out, it seems unlikely.

Recent years have not been impressive in terms of snowfall. Each of the last two seasons has only measured around 50 inches—half the typical total. Compare that to the 30-year average of 101 inches, and it’s clear that snowfall has been below normal for six consecutive years.

How Much Time is Left for Snow?

History gives us some perspective. The average date for the last measurable snowfall in Rochester is April 15th—just three weeks away. The earliest end to the season came on March 16, 2012, when we had an unusually warm stretch with temperatures in the 70s, even hitting 80°F! On the other hand, the latest recorded measurable snowfall happened on May 10, 1966. Many Rochesterians also remember May 7, 1989, when an incredible 11 inches of heavy, wet snow fell.

Let’s hope we don’t go there this year!