ROCHESTER, N.Y. — You may think it is a little early for snowfall for this time of the year. You would be correct. But did you know the snow is already falling in the small town of Harrisburg in Lewis County. This community is near Watertown and sits at an elevation of 1600 feet. Usually the higher the elevation will bring colder temperatures and a better opportunity for snow.  Fortunately, this is not a great inconvenience for northern New York as the forecast is for just inch or two of slushy accumulation.

Can this snowfall happen this time of the year in Western of New York? It is a rare event, but it did happen 18 years ago, but on a much larger scale. On October 12 and 13, 2006 the Buffalo area had a sloppy, messy, heavy weighted snowfall.

In meteorological circles, this is called the “October surprise” because the accuracy of the forecast was (let’s just say) lacking. Snowfall amounts ranged from an inch over the western suburbs of Rochester, but two feet of snow fell near the city of Buffalo. This lake effect coming in off Lake Erie lasted for 16 hours. If that were to happen in the middle of the winter it is a big problem. But this early in the season this amount of snow was a shut-down event.

Unfortunately, with leaves still on the trees, tens of thousands of branches came down and this resulted in significant power outages. For some communities the power was not restored for a period of one to two weeks.

When does Rochester expect its first snowfall? Nothing in the foreseeable future, but the average date for the first snowfall is November 8, and the first inch of snow is usually not until November 20. Hopefully, we have a little time to prepare mentally and there are no surprises.