ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Looking at the long-term temperature trend for Rochester can be very revealing. And the last six months may give you more of a perspective on the overall climate.

But first I should explain how we calculate this comparison. To help us, we look to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). They run the numbers for each month over a 30-year basis and then compare each month to that 30-year average.

If we start with December, Rochester was an amazing eight degrees above the long-term average. This is a primary reason why there was not much snowfall at the start of the winter season. But the warmth does not stop there. January was almost four degrees above normal with February coming in at 7.2 degrees above the norm. This continued into March (+6.3 degrees), through April (+2.3 degrees), and even into May (+4.5 degrees). This is a six-month time period with above-average temperatures. There are a lot of ingredients that go into this massive amount of heat (including El Nino), but certainly climate change is one of those ingredients.

However, it is important to note that this does not mean we will never enjoy cooler weather ever again. For example, the shorter-term forecast is already telling a different story. It appears there will be a cooling trend heading into the weekend. And even the eight to fourteen-day temperature outlook (June 10 – 16) looks to be cooler than normal. As a result, the probability is rather high that the below-average temperatures could be set to return for Western New York. So here is the question. Will this be the first month in six months to end up with a below-average temperature?

We will see, and the benefit is that we may not use the air conditioning quite as often.